Florida State’s Performance in Comparison to Their ACC Counterparts Isn’t As Impressive As You’re Led to Believe
While the college football world waits to see what happens next in the conference realignment sideshow, everyone’s weighing in on what the ACC‘s primary “malcontents” — Florida State and Clemson — should do next. As our own Joel Penning mentioned yesterday, for the Tigers, the main concern is television dollars, and how they can stack up to in-state rival South Carolina. For Florida State, however, it comes from a place of much more arrogance (or so its appears based on the rumors and reports floating around. The ‘Noles faithful believe themselves to be above their ACC brethren, and are looking to cash in on the rewards they’re supposedly entitled to as a result of a decade of football dominance.
“… Oh, wait. You mean they didn’t run roughshod through the ACC since the conference expanded to 12 members in 2005? Well I’d like to see some numbers concerning on-field performance over the past seven seasons, just to see what all the fuss is about.”
If you’ve had the above conversation with yourself, your friend, your dog, blog and forum commenters, or even the nearest tree, we have some good news for you: Actual statistics to take a deeper dive into the issue, and see what FSU’s gripe is all about. Now, of course, these should not be considered “scientific” in any way. However, given the data at our disposal (wins, bowl berths, etc.), they’ll definitely do just fine.
First question: Who has been the winningest program in the ACC since the start of the 2005 season?
Take a look at this table below:
| OVERALL WINS | ||||||||
| TEAM | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | AVERAGE |
| Virginia Tech | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10.57 |
| Boston College | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8.29 |
| Clemson | 10 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8.14 |
| Florida State | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8.14 |
| Georgia Tech | 8 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8.14 |
| Miami | 6 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 7.14 |
| Wake Forest | 6 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 6.57 |
| NC State | 8 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6.14 |
| North Carolina | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6.14 |
| Maryland | 2 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 5.86 |
| Virginia | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 5.86 |
| Duke | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.43 |
| AVG: | 6.95 | |||||||
Averaging out wins over the past seven years, the Virginia Tech Hokies are by-and-large the league’s winningest squad, racking up a stunning 10.57 victories per season — almost four full wins over the league mean of 6.95 wins per season. In total, six teams finished above that mark: Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Miami (in that order). While it’s just part of the argument, BC average 8.29 Ws per season, versus 8.14 for FSU. And that’s counting last year’s 4-8 debacle for the Eagles, too. Just as a point of reference when the Seminoles refer to Boston College as freeloaders. Moving on…
But non-conference schedules can skew those results. How did the teams fare against one another over the same time period?
Again, take a look below:
| CONFERENCE WINS | ||||||||
| TEAM | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | AVERAGE |
| Virginia Tech | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6.57 |
| Georgia Tech | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5.29 |
| Clemson | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4.86 |
| Boston College | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4.71 |
| Florida State | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4.57 |
| Miami | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.14 |
| Wake Forest | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4.00 |
| NC State | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3.43 |
| North Carolina | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3.43 |
| Virginia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3.43 |
| Maryland | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3.29 |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 |
| AVG: | 4.05 | |||||||
In league play, VPI once again led the way, this time with an average of 6.57 wins per season, with Georgia Tech (5.29) as the only other school to average over five per year. Reiterating again, the group above the mean (four per year) consists of the five schools most rumored to be departing to greener pastures, and Boston College.
And what about the postseason? Who gets to bowl games most often, and do they win those games?
As the total bowl berths chart explains, the “average” is the percentage of seasons each team appears in the postseason, with the ACC’s mean percentage coming in at 69 percent for each team. Here, the “big four” own a clear advantage on the others, making a bowl game in each of the seven seasons.
| BOWL BERTHS | ||||||||
| TEAM | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | AVERAGE |
| Clemson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
| Florida State | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
| Georgia Tech | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
| Virginia Tech | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
| Boston College | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.86 |
| Miami | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.71 |
| Maryland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 |
| NC State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.57 |
| North Carolina | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 |
| Wake Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 |
| Virginia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.43 |
| Duke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| AVG: | 0.69 |
In terms of bowl wins, Florida State actually blows away everyone else here, winning 71 percent of the games they appeared in. Next closest? A four-way tie at 43 percent. Advantage: FSU.
| BOWL WINS | ||||||||
| TEAM | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | AVERAGE |
| Florida State | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.71 |
| Boston College | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 |
| Maryland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 |
| NC State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.43 |
| Virginia Tech | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.43 |
| Clemson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.29 |
| Wake Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Miami | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 |
| North Carolina | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 |
| Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 |
| Duke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Georgia Tech | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| AVG: | 0.29 |
Did those postseason appearances come with conference titles? How’d all that play out since 2005?
Well, since the league expanded to 12 teams, it’s pretty much been the Virginia Tech show (as indicated by some of the other numbers above). They’ve been to five of the league’s seven championship games. Next best is two.
| DIVISION TITLES | ||||||||
| TEAM | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | AVERAGE |
| Virginia Tech | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.71 |
| Boston College | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Clemson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Florida State | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.29 |
| Georgia Tech | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Wake Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 |
Florida State is one of five teams to claim an ACC football championship since 2005, though only one of those schools (VPI) has taken home more than one. Again, bringing up those pesky “freeloaders” FSU was quick to point out, the ‘Noles and Wake Forest have the same number of ACC titles.
| ACC TITLES | ||||||||
| TEAM | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | AVERAGE |
| Virginia Tech | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 |
| Clemson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 |
| Florida State | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 |
| Georgia Tech | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 |
| Wake Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 |
And again, just to hammer the point home, Florida State has just one BCS berth since 2005. Same as Clemson, Georgia Tech and Wake.
| BCS BERTHS | ||||||||
| TEAM | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | AVERAGE |
| Virginia Tech | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 |
| Clemson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 |
| Florida State | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 |
| Georgia Tech | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 |
| Wake Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 |
So, to recap, here’s where Florida State stands when considering on-field results:
Overall Wins: T-3rd
Conference Wins: T-5th
Bowl Berths: T-1st
Bowl Wins: 1st
Division Titles: T-2nd
Conference Titles: T-2nd
BCS Bowls: T-2nd
So yeah, not the worst in the league by any measure, but also, not the juggernaut the team’s fans believe it to be. If any team were to actively try to leave based on on-field performance, Virginia Tech has the best argument by quite a bit (though don’t get any ideas, guys!).
But what do you think? Should on-field results play a factor here at all, or at this point, is it all about the money and we can just drop the discussion of actual football achievement? Viewpoints contrary to this point are openly welcomed below.
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Based on everything heard to date…Fl State does not seem to have the brightest BOT or best football team….Fl. State spends more than all most if not all ACC football teams and cannot win the conference. I suggest we toss them out for 1) low academic standards compared to rest of ACC, 2) have done nothing on the field in past several years to bring honor to the ACC, 3) they deserve the Big 12….and boy what a screwing in won-loss record and expenses they will get but at least their academic standards will be in the middle of the pack.
While I’d love to toss FSU to the curb and just put an end to this realignment circus, I just don’t believe the ACC has enough leverage to do so. In any situation where FSU departs the ACC, there’s going to be reverberations amongst the other conference members. At least four other members have been rumored as interested in leaving, so it just appears to be poor form.
To me, the funniest thing that could happen would be the Big 12 declining to expand, and FSU being stuck in a league it (or at least its fans) pretty much crapped all over for the entire offseason.
I agree … I think the ACC may continue to survive even if FSU leaves, but it will not be the same and it will not have nearly as much influence as it does now.
Like it or not, FSU is the marquee name for football in the ACC, and the conference is in a much better position with the Seminoles in the league than outside of it.
As to whether or not the Big 12 will expand … time will tell. There are good reasons for it, there are other good reasons against it.
Public perception is a funny thing. FSU is still an elite program even after a decade of mediocrity, while VPI is still in a lower tier because they’ve never quite managed to finish #1.
It’s really strange that the Seminoles can be tied for second in conference titles with a grand total of one–as well as a testament to the dominance of the Hokies. Frank Beamer does more with less than any coach not named Jim Grobe.
Agreed on both fronts. But I think it’s a flaw in who’s shaping the conversations (ESPN, forums with more extreme viewpoints for one fan base or another).
Wake Forest and Boston College were called “freeloaders” by Florida State University. Yet, BC has been to just as many ACC title games as FSU, and Wake Forest has won just as many league titles (one). My own Syracuse Orange are the 15th-winningest program in college football history, yet what people remember most is the last decade of futility. Perception is sometimes cruel, but can also make mountains out of molehills (do people still use this phrase? haha).
As for resources, I have a ton of respect for Grobe. Considering where that program has been historically (not good), he’s really done a fantastic job turning them into a consistent contender. Also believe he’s utilized the Florida recruiting ground better than any ACC school not named Miami or Florida State — again, something he should be commended on.
I’m assuming they were called “freeloaders” by FSU fans, not the university itself, right?
Unfortunately, I think that many people will look at the bowls and point to that more than anything. And in some ways, it’s justified – the perception of the ACC as a weak league is due in part to its teams’ failures to win bowl games (as well as poor out-of-conference results).
The thing is, regardless of the wins, perception is not always about winning. FSU was so incredibly dominant for a while and essentially earned a position of greatness (somewhat similar to what Notre Dame has done, even though they haven’t been elite on the field recently).
The bottom line regarding television contracts is ratings, and how many eyeballs teams are able to bring to watch games. Part of it is reputation, and part of it is the size of your alumni base. FSU is good in both of those, regardless of the fact that they haven’t been elite on the field for the past seven years. Wake Forest is not going to draw many eyeballs, regardless of how well they do in the short term.
Fans (Tomahawk Nation’s pretty fond of the phrase) and CBSSports’ Gregg Doyel are all about calling several ACC schools “freeloaders,” unfortunately. The university’s intimated as much, too.
And unfortunately agree on the perception points. Saw it in the Big East, regardless of bowl success. See it with Syracuse basketball, despite success. Those who shape opinions have their own methodology, whether it’s right or wrong, it’s still predominant. Alumni bases do shape opinion, but rather than focusing on those who speak well about their own program, it’s about who yells the loudest.