Category Archives: Previews & Predictions

Russell Athletic Bowl Preview: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

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It's Been a Rough Year for Logan Thomas, But He'll Still Be the Key to a Hokies Bowl Win

It’s Been a Rough Year for Logan Thomas, But He’ll Still Be the Key to a Hokies Bowl Win

Virginia Tech endured its worst season in two decades this year, struggling to win two straight games in order to get back to a bowl. Rutgers, after getting themselves into the BCS Rankings’ top 15, lost three of three of their final five contests, and fell backwards into a four-way tie for the Big East title. Which team’s recent trend will continue?

Bowl Game: Russell Athletic Bowl

Location: Orlando, Fla.

First Year: 1990 (Blockbuster Bowl)

2012 Participants: Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3)

Last Meeting: Virginia Tech over Rutgers, 48-22 (2003)

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Virginia Tech (previous bowl game: 23-20 loss to Michigan in 2012 Allstate Sugar Bowl)

Before the season started, experts felt that Virginia Tech, while certainly adjusting to a ton of new faces on the O-line and in the backfield, could still succeed behind QB Logan Thomas and a staunch defense. Instead, the team tumbled to the brink of bowl ineligibility with a defense that was frequently put in poor field position, mostly be an offense that struggled mightily. Still, the team was top-40 nationally in passing and rushing yards per game, as well as points allowed per game (23.9). So that leaves this one up to the offense more than anything else. Thomas, who put on quite a performance in 2011, has regressed significantly in 2012, but has continuously been relied upon to carry this team by himself. While there’s no point in creating excuses for the junior passer, it’s hard to otherwise figure the increase in sacks and interceptions from one year to the next. The key for Tech in this one will be mixing it up — involving a running game that was middle-of-the-road at its best, and completely inefficient at worst. Rutgers’ defense found itself most effective this season when facing one-dimensional teams. If the Hokies allow them to generate too much pressure on Thomas, it’s sure to result in more costly turnovers. While Thomas’s mobility can also be an asset, it’s just too much pressure for him to be the only effective offensive player.

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Belk Bowl Preview: Duke Blue Devils vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

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Can Duke's High-Powered Offense Lead Them Past Cincinnati's Aggressive D-Line?

Can Duke’s High-Powered Offense Lead Them Past Cincinnati’s Aggressive D-Line?

Duke’s back in the postseason for the first time since 1994. Cincinnati, after tying for yet another Big East title, feels a bit burned after the ACC‘s realignment decision to take Louisville over the Bearcats. Will they take out their anger on the reeling Blue Devils?

Bowl Game: Belk Bowl

Location: Charlotte, N.C.

First Year: 2002 (Continental Tire Bowl)

2012 Participants: Duke Blue Devils (6-6) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3)

Last Meeting: Never

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Duke (previous bowl game: 34-20 loss to Wisconsin in 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl)

Through eight games, the Blue Devils were the darlings of college football. At 6-2, they clinched their first bowl trip in 18 years all the way back in October. And yet, we’re looking at Duke much in the same way we normally do now, after four straight rough contests knock them down to 6-6. Simply put, Duke has one thing going for them: a prolific passing offense. Racking up over 277 yards per game, it’s hard to find a more impressive unit than this one, led by veterans Sean Renfree and Conner Vernon. Unfortunately, the defense has done little to stop other teams from putting up similar numbers in their own passing games. Ranked 97th in the country in passing yards per game, the Blue Devils have struggled mightily stopping big gains through the air (hammered home by the 25 passing touchdowns put up against them). When you make former Stanford starter Josh Nunes look like a Heisman contender, those numbers shouldn’t surprise you.

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ACC Bowl Matchups: Keys to Success

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Will Andre Ellington and the Clemson Run Game Be the Key to the Tigers' Bowl Success?

Will Andre Ellington and the Clemson Run Game Be the Keys to the Tigers’ Bowl Success?

We’ll be previewing each ACC bowl matchup individually as the games get closer, but for now, it’s worth at least taking a top-level look. Once again, the ACC’s up against a pretty formidable group of opponents, but all isn’t lost just yet.

Below, you’ll find the keys to each game laid out, along with the easiest path for the respective ACC teams to find success. Obviously, none of these are guaranteed results, and there’s still plenty more left to discuss (and we will as December wears on).

Keys to Success

Belk Bowl (Duke vs. Cincinnati): For Duke, it’s all about executing their passing game against a Cincinnati defense that will be reeling without head coach Butch Jones in the picture. The Bearcats, while very formidable on defense overall, ranked just 73rd in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game (243.5). They got by, however, forcing turnovers in the passing game, and buckling down in the red zone. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11 passing scores, compared to 14 picks. If Duke can avoid errors while throwing the football, and live up to their 32nd overall ranking in that department, they can find a clear path to victory.

Russell Athletic Bowl (Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers): The best way to beat Rutgers is by controlling the pace of the game; something Tech has struggled with significantly this entire season. For as well as that defense has played this year, the offense has been another story. Hokies quarterback Logan Thomas will be relied upon to lead a brisk attack and make the Scarlet Knights play from behind. Virginia Tech was also 4-1 when scoring 30 or more points this year, while Rutgers was 0-1 in the only contest where their opponents reached that mark.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl (Syracuse vs. West Virginia): While Syracuse has benefited from a torrid pace in many of their wins this year, the key this time around will be generating a significant pass rush to pressure WVU quarterback Geno Smith. As the second half of the Mountaineers season and last year’s SU/WVU game proved, Smith still struggles when forced to deliver a quick ball under duress. If Syracuse allows him to stand and deliver to Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin all game, the Orange are certain to lose. But if SU’s Brandon Sharpe and Jay Bromley can put heat on Smith, that’s when the mistakes begin.

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ACC Championship Game Preview & Prediction: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech

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EJ Manuel and Florida State Are Looking For Their First ACC Title Since 2005

The final ACC contest of the season pits Atlantic Division champion Florida State (10-2) (7-1) against Coastal Division champ Georgia Tech (6-6) (5-3). While FSU has sat atop the conference standings virtually all season, it’s been a long road back from the bottom for the Yellow Jackets, who arrive in Charlotte due to Miami and North Carolina‘s respective postseason ineligibility. These two teams have not faced each other since 2009, a 49-44 barnburner won by Tech. But trust that there’s no love lost here, and both are anxious to earn a trip to the Orange Bowl.

Offense

Florida State possesses more offensive weapons than any ACC team not named Clemson, and yet, their production has been sporadic all season. Yes, they put up 41.3 points per game, but keep in mind that number’s padded by two games against FCS opponents, too. Quarterback EJ Manuel also may have fallen off from his Heisman form earlier in the season, however, when he’s given the reigns to really run this offense (not always the case), he usually impresses. In a season full of positive growth and noted accuracy, last week’s four-turnover debacle must be quickly pushed out of his mind if FSU hopes to leave this game as ACC champs. The best way to beat Georgia Tech is putting them behind early, and with Manuel’s arm, the ‘Noles are more than capable of doing so.

On the Tech side, it’s all about involving the passing game. The biggest criticism with Paul Johnson’s offense has been predictability. Every defense knows they’re going to run the triple-option, so the game-plan hones in on it, and dismisses the pass. Neither Tevin Washington or Vad Lee have the best arms, either, which means they’ll have to pick their spots and throw when the defense gets too comfortable defending the run. As I’ve maintained before, efficiency when throwing the ball — even if it’s just 10-12 times per game — is what makes the triple-option most effective. The Wreck’s struggled with that concept all year, unfortunately, which doesn’t bode well for them here. Advantage: Florida State

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ACC Football 2012 Previews & Predictions: Week 13 (Part 2)

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Tajh Boyd and Clemson Are Looking for Their First Victory Over South Carolina Since 2008

This is part two of this week’s ACC previews and predictions. Check out part one for previews from the week’s featured game and the earlier contests.

The Rest of the Slate (continued, in order of start time):

Miami Hurricanes (6-5) (4-3) at Duke Blue Devils (6-5) (3-4): in the span of three days, this matchup went from critical to pointless, as Duke lost its chance at the division while losing to Georgia Tech, and Miami self-imposed yet another postseason ban. So will either side be motivated for this game? Duke seemingly has their Belk Bowl bid locked up, but riding a three-game losing streak, the wind has kind of vanished from the sails of their “comeback” season. Miami, despite the ban, has shown flashes of real talent all year, and against the Blue Devils’ overmatched secondary, this could be another breakout game. Prediction: Miami 36, Duke 27

Boston College Eagles (2-9) (1-6) at NC State Wolfpack (6-5) (3-4): The Lame Duck Bowl pits two coaches — BC’s Frank Spaziani and NC State’s Tom O’Brien — who are likely out of a job within a week of the final whistle. State has underperformed beyond most pundits’ wildest beliefs, with their biggest strengths, the secondary and quarterback Mike Glennon, also serving as their most serious question marks. And BC, which at first glance possessed a much more potent passing attack under new coordinator Doug Martin, has since fizzled back to a largely ineffective offense typical of Spaziani’s reign of terror. The Wolfpack have the talent to win this game going away, but you could’ve said that about a good deal of the games they played this season, too. Prediction: NC State 38, Boston College 23

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ACC Football 2012 Previews & Predictions: Week 13 (Part 1)

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Florida State and Florida Headline a Big Weekend of Rivalry Games for the ACC

Not much left to be decided on the last regular season weekend of ACC action. Florida State and Georgia Tech have their respective division titles clinched, and Miami and UNC are officially staying home for the postseason. But luckily, it’s Rivalry Week, so still plenty on the line for many schools. It’s also a prime weekend for the ACC to help out its reputation. Four teams go up against SEC foes this week. If the ACC can come out ahead in at least two of those (three are against teams in the top 13 of the BCS rankings), it would be a huge statement to close a forgettable regular season.

Game of the Week

Florida Gators (10-1) at Florida State Seminoles (10-1) (7-1): With both teams ranked in the top 10, there’s an extra spark in this rivalry not seen in a few years. The Gators, currently ranked fourth in the BCS standings, could very well be playing for a chance at a national championship shot. Florida State, on the other hand, is looking to take home the Florida Cup for the second straight year, and would love to put a damper on UF’s aspirations. Florida has struggled in recent weeks, but with starting quarterback Jeff Driskel back on Saturday, they’re hoping the offense receives a shot in the arm. They’ll need it if they hope to get by the ‘Noles stifling defense, which has allowed 20 points or more just three times all season. Prediction: Florida State 26, Florida 21

The Rest of the Slate (in order of start time):

Syracuse Orange (6-5) at Temple Owls (4-6): The Orange are riding high after two straight victories earned them bowl eligibility. Can they keep up momentum in their final Big East football game, though? It’s tough to tell. There’s a 90-percent chance that regardless of what happens, SU is headed to the Pinstripe Bowl, and Temple also has no means to get to the postseason themselves, with only 11 games on the schedule. Still, given the number of seniors taking the field for the Orange, we may see another rave-worthy performance — to give a boost to draft stocks if nothing else. In particular, offensive stars Alec Lemon and Ryan Nassib have been getting buzz to go on the first or second day of the NFL Draft next spring. They’d hate to slip up now, especially with just two games remaining. Prediction: Syracuse 38, Temple 20

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ACC Football 2012 Previews & Predictions: Week 12

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DeAndre Hopkins and the Clemson Offense Are Hoping to Avoid a Letdown Versus NC State for the Second Straight Year

For this weekend to be deemed a success, the ACC must simply hope that its favorites pull out victories against in-conference underdogs, while two five-win squads tack on victories out-of-conference to get to bowl eligibility. Unfortunately, even the easiest request has become a tall order in the ACC, a league still mired in extreme parity, parading as mediocrity to outside spectators (or at least that’s my story). Let’s just hope for the best…

Game of the Week

NC State Wolfpack (6-4) (3-3) at Clemson Tigers (9-1) (6-1): Last year, I called this matchup a trap game, but for some reason felt that Clemson’s defense — facing a one-dimensional offense — would be the difference-maker. This time around, the game feels eerily similar. Underachieving Wolfpack squad versus a 9-1 Clemson team that hasn’t been tested in months, and thus, has plenty of room to grow on the defensive side of the ball. But for State, there just isn’t the same sense of urgency as last year — with the team clinching bowl eligibility last week, their backs are not pressed against the wall, nor are they all that inspired to play for their lame-duck coach, Tom O’Brien. I’m convinced this year’s Clemson team is better than the 2011 model, and because it’s a home game, it’s hard not to go with the talented Tigers and their potent offensive attack. Prediction: Clemson 41, NC State 30

The Rest of the Slate (in order of start time):

North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) (3-3) at Virginia Cavaliers (4-6) (2-4): The South’s Oldest Rivalry is always a fun — if underrated — game and this year’s edition should be no different as both teams are surrounded by more questions than answers. Carolina’s offense showed it’s capable of putting up points in bunches when it rang up 50 last week. But its defense revealed itself as a porous, overrated group still struggling to get a handle on Larry Fedora’s 4-2-5 scheme while giving up 68 points. On offense, the Hoos are no world-beaters, but there’s hope the group has finally hit its stride, with the running game seemingly back on track and Michael Rocco firmly taking the reigns of the passing attack once more. Expect tonight’s matchup to be sloppy and mistake-ridden, with Carolina killing off UVa’s dreams of bowl eligibility by a slim margin. Prediction: UNC 27, Virginia 21

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