College Football 2012 Offensive Scoring Efficiency Ratings

Posted on April 5, 2013 by JohnCassillo

Oregon's Offense Was High-Powered in 2012, But Was It Efficient?

Oregon’s Offense Was High-Powered in 2012, But Did It Score More Efficiently Than Others?

Over the past two weeks, I’ve been tossing around an idea: what does scoring efficiency look like for every college football team, and does that also correlate to victories? Admittedly, it’s not overly complicated, but nonetheless, certainly took a good deal of number crunching (aka, simple math) to come up with some figures. Additionally, while putting this all together, I thought it would be interesting to see if teams that ran or passed the ball more saw a higher scoring efficiency rate, higher win total or both.

You can feel free to peruse the full data set for all 124 FBS schools here (color-coded for conference affiliation) in this handy Google doc. Included are the total offensive plays run during the 2012 season, total points scored, the efficiency rating (we’ll discuss below), run percentage, pass percentage and total victories.

The crux of this exercise is the scoring efficiency metric, which is actually a pretty simple points-scored-per-play figure. Basically, we’re assuming that efficiency is scoring more points in less plays, while inefficiency is scoring less points in more plays. With that definition in mind, the top 10 most efficient scoring offenses were as follows:

SCHOOL	PLAYS	POINTS	EFF.
Oregon	1059	645	0.609065156
Alabama	898	542	0.603563474
Kansas State	841	505	0.600475624
Louisiana Tech	1054	618	0.586337761
Oklahoma State	1014	594	0.585798817
Florida State	941	550	0.584484591
Georgia	924	529	0.572510823
Texas A&M	1025	578	0.563902439
North Carolina	898	487	0.542316258
Baylor	1072	578	0.539179104

Not a whole lot of surprise here. Some of the nation’s most highly regarded offenses (Oregon, Texas A&M, Baylor, Louisiana Tech) are all present, though admittedly, I’m a bit surprised to see Florida State and Georgia. While I wouldn’t exactly call Alabama an offensive machine, the have a knack for brutal efficiency in every aspect of the game, so it should not come as a shock to see them listed right under the Ducks’ attack, despite running 150 less plays in one more game than Oregon. Also of note, every one of these teams tallied at least eight wins last season, and six had 11 or more. In fact, when looking at the full, sorted efficiency list, the first 25 schools all had at least seven wins on the season, with the first losing team being no. 26, Tennessee (AIR IT OUT, TYLER BRAY!)

And what about the least efficient scoring teams in the country? Your bottom 10:

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Ranking the Best ACC Football Matchups of 2013: #90-81

Posted on February 28, 2013 by JohnCassillo

Florida State vs. Boston College Was Ugly in 2012, Will It Be a Repeat in 2013?

The 2013 ACC football schedule has officially been released, meaning we finally have some clarity as to whom the conference’s 14 teams will face-off with from week-to-week next season. So with that in mind, we thought it would be an entertaining undertaking to rank all 112 ACC football games for 2013 because, well… it’s the offseason.

Today, we take a quick glance at numbers 90 through 81; the first group in our countdown made up entirely of FBS opponents. Just one conference game in this collection, and it’s only there because of how lopsided the result’s likely to be.

#90: Central Michigan Chippewas at NC State Wolfpack (Saturday, September 28)

#89: Ball State Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (Saturday, October 5)

#88: Marshall Thundering Herd at Virginia Tech Hokies (Saturday, September 21

#87: Army Black Knights at Boston College Eagles (Saturday, October 5)

#86: Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates (Saturday, September 14)

#85: Florida International Golden Panthers at Maryland Terrapins (Saturday, August 31)

#84: Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at North Carolina Tar Heels (Saturday, September 7)

#83: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Army Black Knights (Saturday, September 21)

#82: Troy Trojans at Duke Blue Devils (Saturday, September 28)

#81: Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (Saturday, September 28)

Some additional notes on today’s list:

The 10 games appear on six different dates, with none appearing after October 5
Breakdown of non-conference opponent leagues: Conference USA (4), FBS Independent (2), MAC (2), Sun Belt (1)
Breakdown of non-conference opponent home states: New York (2), Alabama (1), Florida (1), Indiana (1), Michigan (1), North Carolina (1), Tennessee (1), West Virginia (1)
Public vs. private universities: Seven public, two service academies

Previously: #112-101, #100-91

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ACC Football 2012 Power Rankings: Week Seven

Posted on October 9, 2012 by JohnCassillo

On the Arm of Backup QB Anthony Boone, Duke Recorded Yet Another Big Win Saturday

More upheaval in the ACC over the weekend, and as a result, the league now has zero legitimate national championship contenders or Heisman candidates. But such is life. In better news, the league’s parity (seen as a hindrance in many circles) will also produce one of the country’s most exciting conference championship races as the season winds down. How are the teams currently jockeying for position, though? Read on…

1. Florida State Seminoles (5-1) (2-1) (LW: 1): Another disappointing loss for the Seminoles, but they retain their top spot due to the fact that they actually play defense, as well as their win over the next-best squad just two weeks ago. What made this team so exciting early on was not only their aggressive play on defense, but their willingness to take risks on offense, too. As that risk factor has diminished over these past two weeks, that’s where the cracks in the armor have developed. Jimbo Fisher needs to put faith in his playmakers to win games, instead of just coasting toward the finish line.

2. Clemson Tigers (5-1) (2-1) (LW: 2): Tajh Boyd and DeAndre Hopkins have become a clinic on how to run a lethally effective passing offense — so much so that it no longer matters who’s throwing or catching the ball (see Saturday’s Hopkins-to-Boyd two-point conversion). Admittedly (as mentioned above), the Tigers’ defense still needs a boatload of work. But with the offense firing on all cylinders like it has been this season, there are few teams capable of out-gunning them.

3. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (4-2) (3-0) (LW: 3): Miami kicks off a four-team block of questions with very few answers. Which Miami team is the “real” one? The squad that’s lost to Kansas State and Notre Dame by a combined score of 93-16, or the one that’s 3-0 in ACC play? Luckily some of this gets sorted out this coming weekend, as the ‘Canes take on North Carolina.

4. Duke Blue Devils (5-1) (2-0) (LW: 5): Are the Blue Devils among the favorites in the Coastal Division? Until they lose a conference game, we’ll have to include them in the conversation. But all the signs of a contender are there. Duke’s been without several players due to injury, and even started backup QB Anthony Boone on Saturday. Yet they just keep winning. Should they come up with another W this weekend, they’ll not only clinch a bowl bid, but also take control of the division and potentially find themselves ranked, too.

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ACC Football 2012 Previews & Predictons: Week Six

Posted on October 4, 2012 by JohnCassillo

Miami’s Offense Put On a Show Last Week; Can They Repeat the Performance Against Notre Dame?

Everybody’s back in action for week six, as ACC play is now in full swing. Below we give our respective opinions on the players, coaches, issues and injuries that may end up having an impact on this weekend’s football action. There’s also a good chance that we arrive at completely different results for completely different reasons. So just be prepared for that as well.

Game of the Week

Miami Hurricanes (4-1) (3-0) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) (in Chicago): Once a chronicle of everything “right” and “wrong” about college football, Notre Dame and Miami have not met in the regular season since 1990. Obviously the teams of 2012 are much different, even if the media relentlessly reminds you of “Catholics vs. Convicts.” Notre Dame comes into this one favored by nearly two touchdowns after their strong defensive performances to start off the season. However, they’ve yet to face a team of playmakers quite like Miami’s. If the Irish can pressure Stephen Morris into making some mistakes, they’ve got a chance. But if forced to win with offense, there’s no guarantee Notre Dame can keep up with the Hurricanes’ firepower or big-play capabilities. Despite the home crowd, this could be the day’s biggest upset. Prediction: Miami 31, Notre Dame 26

The Rest of the Slate (in order of start time):

Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) at Syracuse Orange (1-3): In their final meeting as Big East foes, Pitt and Syracuse appear to be moving in opposite directions. Syracuse’s special teams have been a significant issue all season, and along with their porous run defense, the Orange must continue to work on more fundamental tackling. Pitt, while suited to exploit these weaknesses, has also shown a distinct need for a balanced attack — something that may elude them on Friday night. If Syracuse can put a pass-rush on QB Tino Sunseri, and do a better job of stopping the run game, they stand a chance. Prediction: Pitt 27, Syracuse 21

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ACC Football 2012 Schedule & Spreads: Week Six

Posted on October 3, 2012 by JohnCassillo

Miami-Notre Dame is One of Several Big Matchups for ACC Teams This Weekend

Every week, we’ll be providing a quick rundown of which ACC football games are on television, and also list the latest spread on each game (should you choose to engage in gambling-related activities). Please plan your days accordingly.

ACC Football Week 6 Television Schedule & Spreads

Friday, October 5

Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange (+2.5), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Saturday, October 6

Boston College Eagles at Army Black Knights (+8.5), noon ET, CBS Sports Network

Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels (+10.5), 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Gameplan/ACC Network

Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils (-2). 3 p.m. ET, ESPN Gameplan/ACC Network

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Maryland Terrapins (-4.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers (-9.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Miami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-13), 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Florida State Seminoles at NC State Wolfpack (+14), 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2

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ACC Football 2012 Previews & Predictions: Week Four (Part One)

Posted on September 21, 2012 by JohnCassillo

Will Clemson’s Sammy Watkins Be Able to Outrun Florida State in Primetime on Saturday?

For the first time since 2009 (at Boston College), an ACC school will play host to ESPN’s College Gameday, when the guys set up shop in Tallahassee this weekend. It’s a big day for the conference, as it continues its uphill PR battle, and the atmosphere shouldn’t disappoint. We’ve got our predictions for Saturday below. Plus, if you’re looking for a full rundown of the television schedule, consult our handy viewing guide from Wednesday.

Game of the Week

Clemson Tigers (3-0) (0-0) at Florida State Seminoles (3-0) (1-0): Amidst the lights, sights and sounds of College Gameday, two top-ten ACC teams will play for both individual and collective respect. Win big, and the victor here gets an infinite amount of respect thrown their way (especially in the case of Clemson). For the loser, it’s a case of “I told you so.” Florida State’s defense is as staunch as they come, giving up just three points over its first three contests. However, you can never count out the Tigers’ high-powered offense, especially with the return of play-making receiver Sammy Watkins. It will be a closer matchup than the aggressive two-TD line suggests, but FSU will win the battle at the line of scrimmage, ultimately setting the stage for a big win on national television. Prediction: Florida St. 26, Clemson 20

The Rest of the Slate (in order of start time):

Bowling Green Falcons (1-2) at Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) (0-0): The Hokies are reeling after struggling mightily to put up points against Pittsburgh on Saturday, in a surprising upset. Not only have the questions on offense lingered and even increased as the season’s progressed, but now the defense (its strong point) looks to be embattled as well. Their opponent this week, Bowling Green, is in a similar mess. Scoring under 17 points per game, the Falcons have been unable to generate offensive momentum against lesser opponents. This may be just the solution Logan Thomas and VPI needed, as they roll, and get back on track. Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Bowling Green 3

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