Atlantic Coast Convos 2013 College Football Top 25 Rankings: Week 5

Bryce Petty and Baylor are This Week's Big Gainers in the Rankings

Bryce Petty and the Baylor Bears are This Week’s Big Gainers in the Rankings

This was a tough weekend of football for most fans to watch, though the large majority of the top 25 teams won in blowout fashion. You’ll notice the minimal shifts below as a result, but that all changes next week. As conference play starts up in earnest, there will be plenty of shake-ups in the rankings. So for many programs, enjoy your time at the top while you can.

Completely disagree with the way in which these teams are ordered? Believe that you’re better at ranking teams that have yet to play a game? Share your thoughts/gripes/manifestos in the comments.

Atlantic Coast Convos 2013 Top 25 (Week 5)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) (Last: 1)

2. Oregon Ducks (3-0) (Last: 2)

3. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) (Last: 3)

4. Clemson Tigers (3-0) (Last: 4)

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) (Last: 5)

6. LSU Tigers (4-0) (Last: 6)

7. Louisville Cardinals (4-0) (Last: 7)

8. Florida State Seminoles (3-0) (Last: 8)

9. Georgia Bulldogs (2-1) (Last: 9)

10. Texas A&M Aggies (3-1) (Last: 10)

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Atlantic Coast Convos 2013 College Football Top 25 Rankings: Week 4

Alabama Stays at Number One This Week, After Outlasting a Tough Texas A&M Squad

Alabama Stays at Number One This Week, After Outlasting a Tough Texas A&M Squad

No enormous shake-ups this week in a mostly lackluster slate of games. And even the country’s most competitive contest (‘Bama/A&M) still tells us very little about which of those teams is truly “better.” If anything, most of the movement after week 3 happened near the bottom or completely outside of the polls, which is where you’ll see the most shifting around.

Completely disagree with the way in which these teams are ordered? Believe that you’re better at ranking teams that have yet to play a game? Share your thoughts/gripes/manifestos in the comments.

Atlantic Coast Convos 2013 Top 25 (Week 4)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) (Last: 1)

2. Oregon Ducks (3-0) (Last: 3)

3. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) (Last: 2)

4. Clemson Tigers (2-0) (Last: 4)

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) (Last: 5)

6. LSU Tigers (3-0) (Last: 8)

7. Louisville Cardinals (3-0) (Last: 7)

8. Florida State Seminoles (2-0) (Last: 9)

9. Georgia Bulldogs (1-1) (Last: 10)

10. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) (Last: 6)

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Atlantic Coast Convos 2013 College Football Top 25 Rankings: Week 2

With a Hot Start, Oregon is One of a Handful of Non-SEC Teams Challenging Alabama

With a Hot Start, Oregon is One of a Handful of Non-SEC Teams Challenging Alabama for No. 1

Week two of the college football season provided a significant shake-up in and around the top 10, after two of the SEC East’s top squads suffered defeats over the weekend. Coupled with losses by Notre Dame and Texas, the trickle-down effect gives way to quite a bit of shake-up after just two games, with plenty more to come as schedules get tougher.

Completely disagree with the way in which these teams are ordered? Believe that you’re better at ranking teams that have yet to play a game? Share your thoughts/gripes/manifestos in the comments.

Atlantic Coast Convos 2013 Top 25 (Week 2)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0) (Last: 1)

2. Stanford Cardinal (1-0) (Last: 2)

3. Oregon Ducks (2-0) (Last: 3)

4. Clemson Tigers (2-0) (Last: 5)

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) (Last: 6)

6. Texas A&M Aggies (2-0) (Last: 4)

7. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) (Last: 8)

8. LSU Tigers (2-0) (Last: 14)

9. Florida State Seminoles (1-0) (Last: 10)

10. Georgia Bulldogs (1-1) (Last: 11)

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Could a Scheduling Alliance Between the ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame Truly Work?

Under Further Discussion: Is an Alliance Between Notre Dame, the ACC and Big 12 Viable?

Under Further Discussion: Is an Alliance Between Notre Dame, the ACC and Big 12 Viable?

Last week, our own Hokie Mark put together an article on his site, ACCFootballRx, taking a look at how a scheduling agreement between the ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame could conceivably work out. While he does a great job of laying out the specifics, he and I also carried the conversation over to email afterward, to discuss the issue a bit more. In particular, we dove into Notre Dame’s willingness to participate, notes on television deals and West Virginia‘s desires in this proposed situation.

John: First and foremost, would Notre Dame want to partner with the Big 12 as a whole? I get the feeling they’d prefer to keep their primary opponents, five ACC teams and then have the flexibility to schedule the Big 12′s elite teams like Texas and Oklahoma.

Mark: I agree.  That’s why I said I think this would have to fall somewhere between “rotating through all of the teams” and “just play the made-for-TV matchups.” I could see Notre Dame giving the Big 12 a list of teams they’d agree to play, which might look like this: Texas, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State. (They’d leave out Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and West Virginia, in my opinion).

That may not go over so well with the four left out, but consider this: (1) WVU is more interested in the ACC scheduling part anyway, so skipping Notre Dame is probably fine with them; (2) Kansas, K-State and Iowa State are just happy to be in a BCS/power conference; (3) at any rate, that creates a 6-4 vote in favor of the deal.

John: Doesn’t the Big 12 need a two-thirds majority for critical decisions? (I thought that was the case, anyway) I mostly agree with your assessments of teams, though I’m not sure Baylor gets lumped in with the other five. Also agree that KU, KSU and ISU are all off the table; plus there’s no way Notre Dame’s scheduling (former head coach) Charlie Weis any time soon.

What kind of impact could we potentially see in terms of television contracts? How much would Notre Dame’s go up by? And each conference’s deals? Would this also put FOX into the bidding (along with ESPN and NBC) for Notre Dame’s contract that expires after 2014?

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College Football 2012 Offensive Scoring Efficiency Ratings

Oregon's Offense Was High-Powered in 2012, But Was It Efficient?

Oregon’s Offense Was High-Powered in 2012, But Did It Score More Efficiently Than Others?

Over the past two weeks, I’ve been tossing around an idea: what does scoring efficiency look like for every college football team, and does that also correlate to victories? Admittedly, it’s not overly complicated, but nonetheless, certainly took a good deal of number crunching (aka, simple math) to come up with some figures. Additionally, while putting this all together, I thought it would be interesting to see if teams that ran or passed the ball more saw a higher scoring efficiency rate, higher win total or both.

You can feel free to peruse the full data set for all 124 FBS schools here (color-coded for conference affiliation) in this handy Google doc. Included are the total offensive plays run during the 2012 season, total points scored, the efficiency rating (we’ll discuss below), run percentage, pass percentage and total victories.

The crux of this exercise is the scoring efficiency metric, which is actually a pretty simple points-scored-per-play figure. Basically, we’re assuming that efficiency is scoring more points in less plays, while inefficiency is scoring less points in more plays. With that definition in mind, the top 10 most efficient scoring offenses were as follows:

SCHOOL PLAYS POINTS EFF.
Oregon 1059 645 0.609065156
Alabama 898 542 0.603563474
Kansas State 841 505 0.600475624
Louisiana Tech 1054 618 0.586337761
Oklahoma State 1014 594 0.585798817
Florida State 941 550 0.584484591
Georgia 924 529 0.572510823
Texas A&M 1025 578 0.563902439
North Carolina 898 487 0.542316258
Baylor 1072 578 0.539179104

Not a whole lot of surprise here. Some of the nation’s most highly regarded offenses (Oregon, Texas A&M, Baylor, Louisiana Tech) are all present, though admittedly, I’m a bit surprised to see Florida State and Georgia. While I wouldn’t exactly call Alabama an offensive machine, the have a knack for brutal efficiency in every aspect of the game, so it should not come as a shock to see them listed right under the Ducks’ attack, despite running 150 less plays in one more game than Oregon. Also of note, every one of these teams tallied at least eight wins last season, and six had 11 or more. In fact, when looking at the full, sorted efficiency list, the first 25 schools all had at least seven wins on the season, with the first losing team being no. 26, Tennessee (AIR IT OUT, TYLER BRAY!)

And what about the least efficient scoring teams in the country? Your bottom 10:

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College Football’s Most Overrated and Underrated Teams of the Past Decade

Unfortunately for the ACC, Members Such as Florida State and Miami Rank Among College Football’s Most Overrated

Over on SB Nation, Bill Connelly brought up an interesting point the other day: Has Florida State underachieved this year? It’s a fair question when looking at the overall weakness of the ACC, coupled with the talent FSU possesses on both sides of the ball and their continual refusal to dominate weaker in-conference opponents. The bigger issue here, however, is in the question itself. How do we define “underachievement” in college football? The best measure would likely be the polls, despite obvious flaws. How does a team annually stack up against its expectations that are set by preseason polling? And better, if we want to get a significant sample size, how does a team stack up to expectations over the span of a decade (2003-2012)?

We decided to take on that question, by digging through the last 10 years of the ESPN/USA Today Coach’s Poll. For each season, we took a look at every team’s preseason and postseason rankings (except for 2012, where the most recent rankings are used), and measure the distance between expectation and reality. To get even more data, we also included teams that “also received votes” and listed them in order, as if the polls continued past 25. If a team appeared in the preseason poll (let’s say there were 50 teams altogether), and not the postseason poll, that team’s postseason rank would be 51 — one past the total number of teams. This is repeated for each additional team in that situation so we can get the differentials, even for teams that fail to be included in both polls. Lastly, we averaged the differentials for each team based on however many years they appeared in the polls, and that gets you a picture of just how “overrated” or underrated these teams may be. In general, if it’s within five full spots or so on the poll, a team can be considered “accurately” ranked.

We’ll start with the “underrated” teams, before the yelling starts later on for the “overrated” ones:

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Atlantic Coast Convos 2012 Top 25: Week Five

After a Very Strong Showing Against Arizona, Oregon Vaults Into Our Poll’s Second Spot

As is customary, we’ll be bringing you a new take on the top 25 teams in the country each Monday during the regular season. With some big upsets this week, you’ll notice quite the shake-up from top to bottom. Disagree at all? Feel free to share that with us below (respectfully, of course).

Atlantic Coast Convos 2012 Top 25 (Week Five)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) (LW: 1) (First-place votes: 6)

2. Oregon Ducks (4-0) (LW: 3)

3. Florida State Seminoles (4-0) (LW: 4)

4. LSU Tigers (4-0) (LW: 2)

5. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) (LW: 8)

6. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0) (LW: 5)

7. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) (LW: 7)

8. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) (LW: 14)

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) (LW: 13)

10. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) (LW: 9)

 

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