Conference Realignment: ACC Favoring UConn or Louisville as Replacement for Maryland

Louisville’s Making its Pitch to the ACC, But Will the League Take the Cardinals, or Opt With UConn?

For the first time in the past decade’s realignment carousel, commissioner John Swofford and the ACC will be making a reactionary move. After Maryland‘s defection over to the Big Ten today, the ACC is faced with replacing one of its founding members, while catering to the differing needs of the conference as a whole, and both new and old members of the league.

If the only goal is to simply replace Maryland with another school, then the clear-cut choice would be Connecticut. Providing another team in the general northeast area, the Huskies already have rivalries with Syracuse and Pittsburgh, plus an easy new one with regional foe Boston College. But there’s so much more to consider as realignment takes a turn. Up until this point the number-one rule of realignment was John Swofford always wins. Now that this has been proven patently false, the league must quickly adjust, not only to add replace the Terps, but to keep the rest of its members in place as well. And that’s no easy task, considering the league’s pipeline for new members has virtually dwindled to four.

According to CBS Sports, the ACC is having conversations about adding a replacement school already, and plan to act quickly. The candidates should not surprise anyone: Connecticut, Louisville, USF and Cincinnati, with the former two being the frontrunners. For UConn, the draws are an easy cultural and academic fit, well-rounded athletics outside of football and a close proximity to ESPN’s Bristol, Conn. campus. Louisville, while lagging behind on the academic front, has made a huge investment in athletics over the past 10 years and has strong football and basketball brands. The Louisville area also appears to be a growing market, and could potentially be an assist when it comes to television negotiations.

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Maryland Leaving the ACC for the Big Ten: Perspectives From a Terps Fan

Unlike Conference Realignment Moves in the Past, Maryland Fans Aren’t Thrilled About Leaving for the Big Ten

(Editor’s note: Our resident Maryland fan, Chip, shared his perspective on the move over in the comments from Saturday’s initial story. I felt everything was so spot-on and well-put, however, that I felt it should be its own stand-alone post.)

This is a really abbreviated summary of how I see things:

The main reason this may happen from the Big Ten’s side is that they will get access to the D.C./Maryland markets with the Terps (and New Jersey/NYC with Rutgers). This, in my opinion, is the MAJOR OVERRIDING reason they want UMD and Rutgers. It not only gets them greater east coast exposure, but gets them much more money in carriage fees for the Big Ten Network.

Pros for Maryland:

  • The Big Ten pays out much more money per year than the ACC does (by quite a bit).
  • There might be better bowl games available.
  • The Big Ten is full of land-grant institutions, which Maryland is one of (not that I see that as a huge deal, but a similarity nonetheless).

Neutral:

  • Both the ACC and Big Ten have great academic institutions.
  • Both the ACC and Big Ten have decent Olympic sports (although the ACC may be better).

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Conference Realignment Rumors: Maryland Headed to Big Ten?

The Rumor Mill’s Back: Is Maryland Plotting a Move to the Big Ten?

What would college football’s stretch run be without rumors about conference expansion? As SB Nation’s Testudo Times details, there’s a strong sense out there that Maryland may be headed to the Big Ten for 2014. Yes, we’ve certainly heard this before. One can just trace back to July 2012 to find the last time one or two ACC schools were “definitely leaving” for greener pastures. And that was before the $50 million exit fee was approved by conference members (only dissenters were Maryland and Florida State).

So while I won’t automatically discount the move, consider this: Maryland’s athletic department has been losing money for six consecutive years now. To deal with this issue, they’re planning to cut at least seven of the school’s 27 varsity sports. Florida State has also been in a similar situation, yet continues to come up in realignment talks. Do we honestly believe either school can just hand over $50 million — possibly more if they chose to depart early? I find it hard to believe. Penn State‘s $60 million fine from the NCAA seemed pretty crippling, and they have four years to pay that off. So again, how is a school like Maryland supposed to be able to afford such a hefty price tag on their departure?

Price tag aside, though, what are some of the other factors that could weigh heavily for Maryland to either stay put or head to the Midwest? I’m glad you asked…

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Conference Realignment: Examining the Effects on Teams After the Move (Part 2)

How Will Syracuse and Pittsburgh Fare Once They Move to the ACC in 2013?

Yesterday we looked at teams who have recently switched conferences to see how well they have fared. We determined that the “big boys” like Nebraska and Texas A&M have done just fine. But some of the other schools who have made “lateral” moves – Colorado, Missouri — have had some difficulty adjusting. Finally, the teams which have “moved up” in competition — West Virginia from the Big East and former “mid-major” teams like Utah and TCU — have struggled with the grind of their new “power conference” schedules.

So, what can Pittsburgh and Syracuse expect next year when they move to the ACC? I don’t think anyone would suggest that the ACC is as big a step up for them as the Big 12 was for West Virginia, but will they expect to struggle for awhile?

To get an idea what to expect, let’s look at the last time a Big East team joined the ACC. In fact, let’s look at the last three, since they all switched in a two-year period: Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College.

Oddly enough, VaTech actually performed better after the move. Looking at the seasons just prior to the move, it seems to me that the Hokies were simply in a down year their last season in the Big East. By contrast, Miami declined by one win in-conference and by two wins overall that same year.

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Conference Realignment: Examining the Effects on Teams After the Move (Part 1)

Texas A&M’s Fared Pretty Nicely Since Moving From the Big 12 to the SEC, But Has Every Program Made Out As Well?

There was lots of discussion this spring about teams jumping conferences… Lots of discussion! TCU and West Virginia actually did make the move to the Big 12, and there were rumors about Florida State and Clemson jumping ship as well. But for those who actually changed conferences, was it the right move? From a broader view, how has it worked out in general for teams which have changed conferences in recent years? Can even the best “mid-major” teams survive the so-called “grind” of a major conference schedule?

In the distant past (i.e. before 1990), when a team changed conferences it was generally to join one which was a better academic or geographic fit. Think Georgia Tech leaving the SEC to eventually join the ACC (via independence), or South Carolina doing the reverse. Today it’s a different story. Money generated by athletics has grown to the point where a school will actually consider joining a conference which is further away in order to grab yet more money. Imagine that – major universities motivated by money!

So we’ve seen several teams shift to/from major conferences in the past couple years:

  • Nebraska: from Big 12 to Big Ten
  • Utah: from Mountain West to Pac-12
  • Colorado: from Big 12 to Pac-12
  • Texas A&M: from Big 12 to SEC
  • Missouri: from Big 12 to SEC
  • TCU: from Mountain West (by way of Big East) to Big 12
  • West Virginia: from Big East to Big 12

Obviously there’s a pattern here, as one conference (Big 12) has been involved in the majority of these moves. But I digress…

How did these teams fare after the conference changes, though? To answer that, let’s look at before & after win/loss numbers in-conference and overall:

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Notre Dame’s Status as a “Semi-Independent”: Why it is Good for the ACC and Notre Dame

Florida State vs. Notre Dame will be a great recurring game for the ACC.

By now, you know that Notre Dame will join the Atlantic Coast Conference as a partial member. They will not be joining the league for football, but have agreed to an arrangement in which the football team will play five games per year against ACC teams, and each ACC team will play Notre Dame at least once every three years. If the teams rotate evenly, each team will play against Notre Dame five times every 14 years.

According to reports, the Fighting Irish will give the ACC five weekends on which it is free, and the ACC will fill those spots with five teams from the conference. Effectively, the Notre Dame football team will have the status of a “semi-independent.” While the Irish will not participate in a conference’s football league, a conference will play a part in creating the team’s schedule.

What does this mean moving forward, both for ND and for the ACC? And why is it a good arrangement for both?

Notre Dame’s football team has typically been able to create a strong schedule as an independent. The team has also had a benefit virtually no other school has – an individual contract with NBC for all of its home football games. Given the popularity of Notre Dame as an opponent, they tend to have very little trouble creating their schedule.

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Notre Dame Joining the ACC: Signs of a Good Compromise

Was the ACC-Notre Dame Deal a Good Compromise for Both Parties?

“A good compromise is when both parties are dissatisfied, and I think that’s what we have here.” – credited to U.S. statesman Henry Clay.

Reaction to the Notre Dame / ACC alliance is strong no matter where you look.

Many Florida State and Clemson fans are upset because they feel that Notre Dame is getting a sweetheart deal, and they’re jealous of it. They cite the fact that Notre Dame only has to commit to playing five ACC teams each year while they are forced to play nine – thus making it very difficult for them to schedule the non-conference opponents they would like to play. They also cite the fact that Notre Dame is allowed to continue with its own TV contract separate from the ACC (for football) while still benefiting from the ACC’s football bowls, basketball games & TV, etc. And, of course, they are not happy about the increased exit fee which they feel was instituted to keep them – not Notre Dame – from leaving, with Maryland and Florida State specifically voting against it.

On the other hand, many Notre Dame fans don’t like the deal either, but for different reasons. They think that it is a bad deal for ND and a good deal for the ACC. The Irish had to contractually agree to playing five games per year against a rotating schedule of all 14 ACC teams. To many Notre Dame fans that means they are giving up 5/12th of their football independence (which, I suppose, they are). Keep in mind also that the terms of the deal call for Notre Dame to get a 1/15th share of the basketball money only – which the ACC successfully negotiated as only 20 percent of the total TV revenue.  1/15th of 20% = 1.3%. So from this point of view, Notre Dame will become 5/9th of an ACC football team but will only be paid a 20% (1/5th) share. (Before anyone cries for Notre Dame, bear in mind they will keep 100% of their own football TV contract with NBC, so they will be just fine)
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