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College Football 2012 Offensive Scoring Efficiency Ratings

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Oregon's Offense Was High-Powered in 2012, But Was It Efficient?

Oregon’s Offense Was High-Powered in 2012, But Did It Score More Efficiently Than Others?

Over the past two weeks, I’ve been tossing around an idea: what does scoring efficiency look like for every college football team, and does that also correlate to victories? Admittedly, it’s not overly complicated, but nonetheless, certainly took a good deal of number crunching (aka, simple math) to come up with some figures. Additionally, while putting this all together, I thought it would be interesting to see if teams that ran or passed the ball more saw a higher scoring efficiency rate, higher win total or both.

You can feel free to peruse the full data set for all 124 FBS schools here (color-coded for conference affiliation) in this handy Google doc. Included are the total offensive plays run during the 2012 season, total points scored, the efficiency rating (we’ll discuss below), run percentage, pass percentage and total victories.

The crux of this exercise is the scoring efficiency metric, which is actually a pretty simple points-scored-per-play figure. Basically, we’re assuming that efficiency is scoring more points in less plays, while inefficiency is scoring less points in more plays. With that definition in mind, the top 10 most efficient scoring offenses were as follows:

SCHOOL PLAYS POINTS EFF.
Oregon 1059 645 0.609065156
Alabama 898 542 0.603563474
Kansas State 841 505 0.600475624
Louisiana Tech 1054 618 0.586337761
Oklahoma State 1014 594 0.585798817
Florida State 941 550 0.584484591
Georgia 924 529 0.572510823
Texas A&M 1025 578 0.563902439
North Carolina 898 487 0.542316258
Baylor 1072 578 0.539179104

Not a whole lot of surprise here. Some of the nation’s most highly regarded offenses (Oregon, Texas A&M, Baylor, Louisiana Tech) are all present, though admittedly, I’m a bit surprised to see Florida State and Georgia. While I wouldn’t exactly call Alabama an offensive machine, the have a knack for brutal efficiency in every aspect of the game, so it should not come as a shock to see them listed right under the Ducks’ attack, despite running 150 less plays in one more game than Oregon. Also of note, every one of these teams tallied at least eight wins last season, and six had 11 or more. In fact, when looking at the full, sorted efficiency list, the first 25 schools all had at least seven wins on the season, with the first losing team being no. 26, Tennessee (AIR IT OUT, TYLER BRAY!)

And what about the least efficient scoring teams in the country? Your bottom 10:

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Ranking the Best ACC Football Matchups of 2013: #70-61

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Boston College Pays a Visit to Los Angeles to Face the Trojans This September

Boston College Pays a Visit to Los Angeles to Face the Trojans This September

The 2013 ACC football schedule has officially been released, meaning we finally have some clarity as to whom the conference’s 14 teams will face-off with from week-to-week next season. So with that in mind, we thought it would be an entertaining undertaking to rank all 112 ACC football games for 2013 because, well… it’s the offseason.

Today, we take a quick glance at numbers 70 through 61; the majority of which are in-conference games. As for the non-conference matchups, we certainly see some high-profile contests, though at the same time, it’s tough to gauge just how competitive any of them will actually be. Regardless, we roll on…

#70: NC State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles (Saturday, October 26)

#69: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Miami Hurricanes (Saturday, October 26)

#68: Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles (Saturday, November 16)

#67: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers (Saturday, September 28)

#66: Pittsburgh Panthers at Navy Midshipmen (Saturday, October 26)

#65: Syracuse Orange at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Saturday, October 19)

#64: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Boston College Eagles (Friday, September 6)

#63: East Carolina Pirates at NC State Wolfpack (Saturday, November 23)

#62: Navy Midshipmen at Duke Blue Devils (Saturday, October 12)

#61: Boston College Eagles at USC Trojans (Saturday, September 14)

Some additional notes on today’s list:

  • The 10 games appear on nine different dates
  • Breakdown of non-conference opponent leagues: Independent (2), C-USA (1), Pac-12 (1)
  • Breakdown of non-conference opponent home states: Maryland (2), California (1), North Carolina (1)
  • Public vs. private universities: Two service academy, one public, one private

Previously: #112-101, #100-91, #90-81, #71-80

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Ranking the Best ACC Football Matchups of 2013: #80-71

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The Oregon Ducks Pay a Visit to Virginia in Charlottesville This Fall

The Oregon Ducks Pay a Visit to Virginia in Charlottesville This Fall

The 2013 ACC football schedule has officially been released, meaning we finally have some clarity as to whom the conference’s 14 teams will face-off with from week-to-week next season. So with that in mind, we thought it would be an entertaining undertaking to rank all 112 ACC football games for 2013 because, well… it’s the offseason.

Today, we take a quick glance at numbers 80 through 71; several in-conference games in this list, as an unfortunate result of the league’s severe imbalance between its best and worst teams, respectively. Additionally, there’s a marked uptick in quality of non-conference games as well — though we’re still nowhere near the highlights of the ACC slate.

#80: Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Saturday, November 9)

#79: Boston College Eagles at Clemson Tigers (Saturday, October 12)

#78: UL-Monroe Warhawks at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Saturday, September 14)

#77: Maryland Terrapins at Virginia Tech Hokies (Saturday, November 16)

#76: Maryland Terrapins at Connecticut Huskies (Saturday, September 14)

#75: East Carolina Pirates at North Carolina Tar Heels (Saturday, September 28)

#74: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (Saturday, October 5)

#73: Clemson Tigers at Virginia Cavaliers (Saturday, November 2)

#72: Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins (Saturday, October 5)

#71: Oregon Ducks at Virginia Cavaliers (Saturday, September 7)

Some additional notes on today’s list:

  • The 10 games appear on eight different dates
  • Breakdown of non-conference opponent leagues: Big East (1), C-USA (1), Pac-12 (1), Sun Belt (1)
  • Breakdown of non-conference opponent home states: Connecticut (1), Louisiana (1), North Carolina (1), Oregon (1)
  • Public vs. private universities: Four public

Previously: #112-101, #100-91, #90-81

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Ranking the Best ACC Football Matchups of 2013: #90-81

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Florida State vs. Boston College Was Ugly in 2012, Will It Be a Repeat in 2013?

Florida State vs. Boston College Was Ugly in 2012, Will It Be a Repeat in 2013?

The 2013 ACC football schedule has officially been released, meaning we finally have some clarity as to whom the conference’s 14 teams will face-off with from week-to-week next season. So with that in mind, we thought it would be an entertaining undertaking to rank all 112 ACC football games for 2013 because, well… it’s the offseason.

Today, we take a quick glance at numbers 90 through 81; the first group in our countdown made up entirely of FBS opponents. Just one conference game in this collection, and it’s only there because of how lopsided the result’s likely to be.

#90: Central Michigan Chippewas at NC State Wolfpack (Saturday, September 28)

#89: Ball State Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (Saturday, October 5)

#88: Marshall Thundering Herd at Virginia Tech Hokies (Saturday, September 21

#87: Army Black Knights at Boston College Eagles (Saturday, October 5)

#86: Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates (Saturday, September 14)

#85: Florida International Golden Panthers at Maryland Terrapins (Saturday, August 31)

#84: Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at North Carolina Tar Heels (Saturday, September 7)

#83: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Army Black Knights (Saturday, September 21)

#82: Troy Trojans at Duke Blue Devils (Saturday, September 28)

#81: Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (Saturday, September 28)

Some additional notes on today’s list:

  • The 10 games appear on six different dates, with none appearing after October 5
  • Breakdown of non-conference opponent leagues: Conference USA (4), FBS Independent (2), MAC (2), Sun Belt (1)
  • Breakdown of non-conference opponent home states: New York (2), Alabama (1), Florida (1), Indiana (1), Michigan (1), North Carolina (1), Tennessee (1), West Virginia (1)
  • Public vs. private universities: Seven public, two service academies

Previously: #112-101, #100-91

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Conference Realignment: Navy Joins UConn and Louisville at the Top of ACC’s Expansion List

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The ACC Could Look to Add Navy, as a Bargaining Chip for Notre Dame’s Full Football Membership

With ACC expansion movement seemingly at a standstill between the “football schools” and the “basketball/academic schools,” it doesn’t look like the league is set to add UConn or Louisville any time soon. So of course, a new name — this time from the Big East‘s future ranks — has entered the fray: Navy (source: @ACCSports).

Currently slated to start playing football in the Big East for 2015, the U.S. Naval Academy delivers at least a portion of the Baltimore/Maryland market the ACC loses with Maryland‘s defection to the Big Ten in 2014. But most importantly, it adds yet another reason for Notre Dame to come on-board for all sports. The Irish and Midshipmen already play one another every year in football, and it’s a major priority for both schools to keep it going. If Navy joined the ACC, that would then give Notre Dame six games against league competition every year (if they weren’t simply worked into the rotation). The ACC only plays eight conference games. At that point, what’s really stopping the Fighting Irish from adding two more contests and just joining full-time? It’s understood that they value their independence, but do six in-conference games really fit that designation? While the league is happy with their Notre Dame partnership as-is (and the school is too, especially given their success this year), it can’t hurt to nudge them a little closer to a full membership, can it?

Additionally, what would happen to Navy? If ND finally comes on as a full member of the ACC, then no big deal to have Navy just play football, while the league adds another all-sports member (UConn or Louisville to fill the 16th spot). But if Notre Dame remains independent, things start to get unwieldy (and rather Big East-like). You’d have Notre Dame playing Olympic sports and a partial football schedule, while Navy would only play football, without Olympic sports (beyond lacrosse, they wouldn’t stand much of a chance in the ACC). Those other sports could likely remain in the Patriot League, but what if they push for full membership?

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ACC Football 2012 Power Rankings: Week Five

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Florida State’s EJ Manuel Led the Seminoles’ Late Charge Past Clemson on Saturday, Cementing Their Place Atop These Rankings

This weekend was a big one for the ACC, despite the fact that not all of its teams were in action. With all eyes on Tallahassee to still if Florida State could deliver on the weighty expectations bestowed upon them this season, the ‘Noles did not disappoint. After a big FSU victory, the conference now has a legitimate title contender and potential Heisman winner — something it hasn’t seen in a decade. Expect great things this season.

1. Florida State Seminoles (4-0) (LW: 1): About midway through the first half of Saturday’s game, I was wondering if Florida State would disappoint once again, as they were struggling to really stop the Clemson offense, and could not necessarily break through with their own attack either. But then the second half happened, and we all witnessed an impressive onslaught the likes of which may be a recurring theme for the Seminoles. This team is a bona fide national championship contender, and EJ Manuel could very well be setting up for a surprise Heisman run.

2. Clemson Tigers (3-1) (LW: 2): The Tigers fought valiantly, though in the end, there were just too many weapons on the Seminoles offense, and not enough answers from the Clemson D. Sure, the loss may sting now, but based on Tajh Boyd‘s players-only meeting on Monday, it already looks like they’re focused and ready to continue what should be a very successful campaign. As has been the case these past two years, only the defense can truly hold them back.

3. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) (LW: 4): Needing a big rebound win, the Hokies shut out Bowling Green on Saturday, and appear to be back in control of their season. Unfortunately, however, their offense is still only marginal at best. Even against an inferior team, VPI still managed just 150 yards in the air, and committed nine penalties. If not for Logan Thomas remembering how to run the football, the unit would have been stagnant all day. They just can’t rely on him to do absolutely everything.

4. NC State Wolfpack (3-1) (LW: 5): For all the talk of their “disappointing” start, the Wolfpack are still 3-1, and very much alive in the ACC title race. With the team’s defense seemingly coming on as of late, and their offense establishing an unexpected degree of balance between run and pass, State could actually recapture its darkhorse role and make a midseason run.

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ACC Football 2012 Previews & Predictions: Week Four (Part Two)

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Georgia Tech QB Tevin Washington Faces a Porous Miami Run Defense This Week, While Looking to Pad the Stat Line

This is Part Two of this week’s Previews & Predictions feature. Also check out Part One.

Miami Hurricanes (2-1) (1-0)) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-1) (0-1): Beyond the emergence of freshman Duke Johnson, the Hurricanes’ season has gone poorly to this point, despite their two wins. And Saturday’s contest with Georgia Tech may make things worse. Through three games, the ‘Canes have allowed 617 yards on the ground (an average of over 205 per game). Conversely, the Yellow Jackets have averaged 374 rushing yards per game, in three contests of their own. Given the versatility of their weapons, Tech has a real fundamental advantage against Miami, and will exploit it continuously throughout the game. Prediction: Georgia Tech 45, Miami 24

East Carolina Pirates (2-1) at North Carolina Tar Heels (1-2) (0-1): ECU comes in as a much-improved team on defense, though their offense (a trademark in 2011) appears to be struggling to find a rhythm. And UNC can likely say the same. After their strong start to the year, the Heels have dropped a big game to Wake Forest, and fell way behind Louisville last weekend, before coming back to make it a close contest. Yes, star back Giovani Bernard is out, but that can’t be an excuse for Larry Fedora and QB Bryn Renner. Renner has targets on the field — something the ball carrier doesn’t much change. Prediction: UNC 40, ECU 26

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