Conference Realignment: Examining the Effects on Teams After the Move (Part 2)

How Will Syracuse and Pittsburgh Fare Once They Move to the ACC in 2013?

Yesterday we looked at teams who have recently switched conferences to see how well they have fared. We determined that the “big boys” like Nebraska and Texas A&M have done just fine. But some of the other schools who have made “lateral” moves – Colorado, Missouri — have had some difficulty adjusting. Finally, the teams which have “moved up” in competition — West Virginia from the Big East and former “mid-major” teams like Utah and TCU — have struggled with the grind of their new “power conference” schedules.

So, what can Pittsburgh and Syracuse expect next year when they move to the ACC? I don’t think anyone would suggest that the ACC is as big a step up for them as the Big 12 was for West Virginia, but will they expect to struggle for awhile?

To get an idea what to expect, let’s look at the last time a Big East team joined the ACC. In fact, let’s look at the last three, since they all switched in a two-year period: Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College.

Oddly enough, VaTech actually performed better after the move. Looking at the seasons just prior to the move, it seems to me that the Hokies were simply in a down year their last season in the Big East. By contrast, Miami declined by one win in-conference and by two wins overall that same year.

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ACC Football 2012 Television Schedule & Spreads: Week 12

Tajh Boyd and Clemson Are Looking for Payback Versus NC State This Week, After A Tough Loss in Raleigh Last Year

Every week, we’ll be providing a quick rundown of which ACC football games are on television, and also list the latest spread on each game (should you choose to engage in gambling-related activities). Please plan your days accordingly.

ACC Football Week 12 Television Schedule & Spreads

Thursday, November 15

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers (+3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Saturday, November 17

Florida State Seminoles at Maryland Terrapins (+31), noon ET, ESPNU

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles (+10), 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3

USF Bulls at Miami Hurricanes (-7), 3 p.m. ET, ESPN3

Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-13.5). 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-23.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers (-17), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2

Syracuse Orange at Missouri Tigers (-4.5), 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

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Conference Realignment: Examining the Effects on Teams After the Move (Part 1)

Texas A&M’s Fared Pretty Nicely Since Moving From the Big 12 to the SEC, But Has Every Program Made Out As Well?

There was lots of discussion this spring about teams jumping conferences… Lots of discussion! TCU and West Virginia actually did make the move to the Big 12, and there were rumors about Florida State and Clemson jumping ship as well. But for those who actually changed conferences, was it the right move? From a broader view, how has it worked out in general for teams which have changed conferences in recent years? Can even the best “mid-major” teams survive the so-called “grind” of a major conference schedule?

In the distant past (i.e. before 1990), when a team changed conferences it was generally to join one which was a better academic or geographic fit. Think Georgia Tech leaving the SEC to eventually join the ACC (via independence), or South Carolina doing the reverse. Today it’s a different story. Money generated by athletics has grown to the point where a school will actually consider joining a conference which is further away in order to grab yet more money. Imagine that – major universities motivated by money!

So we’ve seen several teams shift to/from major conferences in the past couple years:

  • Nebraska: from Big 12 to Big Ten
  • Utah: from Mountain West to Pac-12
  • Colorado: from Big 12 to Pac-12
  • Texas A&M: from Big 12 to SEC
  • Missouri: from Big 12 to SEC
  • TCU: from Mountain West (by way of Big East) to Big 12
  • West Virginia: from Big East to Big 12

Obviously there’s a pattern here, as one conference (Big 12) has been involved in the majority of these moves. But I digress…

How did these teams fare after the conference changes, though? To answer that, let’s look at before & after win/loss numbers in-conference and overall:

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Florida State vs. Notre Dame in the BCS Championship: Could the ACC’s Dream Scenario Happen?

Both Sitting at 4-0, Could Florida State and Notre Dame Meet for the National Championship?

There exists a dream scenario for the ACC — an ideal ending to the season, where Florida State meets Notre Dame in the BCS Championship Game – in the Orange Bowl, no less!

Could it happen? Currently Florida State and Notre Dame are #4 and #11, respectively. For them to play each other in the BCS national championship game they would have to be #1 and #2. So the questions are who’s ahead of them, and what would have to happen for these two teams to climb that high?

Florida State

The Seminoles are already #4, so they only need to move up two spots. Two of those teams are Alabama and LSU, who play each other, thus guaranteeing a loss to one of them. Could FSU possibly jump them both?

Alabama plays consecutive road games at Missouri, then Tennessee. If Missouri is able to at least work them hard enough, it’s certainly possible for the Volunteers to finish the job  and give the Crimson Tide its first loss of the season. Alabama then has to travel to LSU — another possible loss. Two losses would certainly be enough to knock Alabama out of the national championship game. Even one loss should be enough to allow an undefeated FSU team to pass them.

Between the top two SEC teams, LSU appears to have the tougher conference schedule. In addition to the SEC West teams, the Tigers must travel to Florida and also host South Carolina (note: to make it even more difficult, those games are back-to-back). So a loss outside of the ‘Bama game is certainly possible for the Bayou Bengals. Furthermore, if Florida beats LSU, that would be ideal because Florida States plays the Gators and could not only take them down but also hurt LSU’s strength of schedule at the same time.

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Conference Realignment: Which BCS Schools Have a Right to Complain About Their League?

Which Teams Have Severely Outperformed Their Conference-mates Over the Past Five Seasons?

Though conference realignment talk has simmered a bit over the past week, it’s still a hot topic in the back of everyone’s heads as we await news on what the college football playoffs will look like. Teams like Florida State claim they pull more than their own weight when it comes to the product on the field in the ACC. But there’s also plenty of other schools that either fail to do so, or consistently do so, yet are mum on the subject. This is where our debate starts today.

We’ve broken down each of the six current “BCS conferences,” calculating the average wins over the last five years on both a per-conference, and per-school basis. While wins aren’t the only factors in conference realignment, the thought is that actual football performance may still matter somewhat in the game of “who brings the most televisions to market” — or at least that’s what we hope. As a forewarning, for some this exercise was a point of validation (Oregon, Alabama, in particular), while for others it was a sobering glance at ineptitude (Washington State and Syracuse, to name a few). Enjoy… Continue reading

Conference Realignment: A Clemson Fan’s Rant

Should Clemson Leave the ACC for the Big 12? One Tigers Fan is Unsure

Rumors of the imminent departure of Florida State and Clemson for the Big 12 have reached a fever pitch in the last few days, and this embarrassed Clemson fan will admit to Googling “Clemson Big 12″ every hour to check the latest message board rumors or statements by university officials taken out of context. While it seems unlikely that anything will happen until late June, when the playoff format has been decided, new Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has taken office, and West Virginia and TCU get full voting rights, Tiger fans all over the country have been salivating over the chance to join the “big boys” and leave the ACC behind.

Clemson has had a love-hate relationship with the ACC since its foundation. Although the Tigers were a charter member, they’ve always felt out of place in a basketball league. By most standards, Clemson would fit better in the SEC than the ACC. But association with prestigious schools like Georgia Tech, Duke, and North Carolina is a boon to the university’s continuing quest to become a top-20 public school, the primary goal of president Jim Barker’s tenure. Continue reading

The ACC’s Tobacco Road Favoritism

Has Tobacco Road Favoritism Been Detrimental to the ACC? Clemson (and Florida State) Would Say Yes

Last September, the ACC’s addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh was met with a collective “meh” from the league’s football schools. But despite the seemingly lackluster performances of the conference’s new members, their joining was generally interpreted as a sign that the ACC was stable and strong. While the Big East and the Big 12 were facing threats to their very existence, the ACC’s place was secure. It was a conference that people wanted to join, not one threatened by exodus.

Less than a year later, a fresh round of rumors would have us believe that the conference’s collapse is imminent. The football-first schools are supposedly on their way to the Big 12, setting the scene for four power conferences which would line up nicely with the impending four-team playoff. The Big Ten and the SEC might pick up some of the detritus, leaving the league’s weaker schools to fend for themselves.

The culprit is Tobacco Road, or at least the idea of Tobacco Road. The Big 12’s loss of Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and especially Texas A&M was driven by resentment at Texas’ dominance of the league. In a similar way, some ACC schools, especially Clemson and Florida State, begrudge the conference’s domination by the four North Carolina schools, especially Duke and UNC.

It’s no secret that Tobacco Road’s influence in ACC decision-making is disproportionate to the Carolina schools’ numbers. The ACC is a basketball-first conference, after all, and with flagship programs like Duke and North Carolina, numbers three and four on the all-time wins list, it’s understandable that their voices would be louder. ACC football has been an afterthought for most of the conference’s history, apart from brief national runs by Maryland in the 1950s and Clemson in the 1980s, and Florida State’s roughshod run over all competition during the 1990s. Continue reading